STRATEGIC VISIONING MODEL FOR SUSTAINABLE URBAN TRANSPORT IN DEPOPULATING SOCIETY

Abstract

  In this study, we propose the visioning model as an analytical tool of vision-led decision making for the sustainable urban transport strategy in the depopulating society. It is applied to the analysis of transport strategies and urban compaction for 269 cities in 2030. The results indicate that 1) CO₂ minimization strategy will improve user's benefit and reduce CO₂ emissions, 2) urban compaction will reduce emissions but may lessen the benefit. Comparing the outcomes among cities, we found a) CO₂ minimization strategy is effective for the emissions reduction and the benefit improvement in large cities, b) smaller cities exhibit a trade-off beween these two effects, and c) urban compaction may alleviate such a trade-off.