Future Scenario Analysis of the Demand for Urban Structural Material Stock in Each Prefecture

Abstract

 From the perspective of the finite resources of nature, transition to a stock-based society that reduces the amount of material input and waste is expected in the future. The material cycle in the construction sector is large; thus, it is essential that the material flow in this sector be reduced in order to reduce environmental impacts. Further, in order to understand the trends in the material flow of the construction sector, it is necessary to understand the future demand for material stock on the basis of social and economic factors. In this study, we focus on urban structures and organize the factors affecting the demand for existing structures. Moreover, we estimate future demand for urban structural material stock in each prefecture for each of the multiple scenarios that reflect different social perspectives. The result obtained from the estimation indicates that the reduction in urban structural material stock from 2000 to 2050 was most limited under the "urban concentration scenario" as compared with the other scenarios-BAU and dispersed settlement. Further, there was a substantial increase in the urban structural material stock per capita under this scenario during same period, while there was a decrease in this stock under the other two scenarios.