Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research)
Online ISSN : 2185-6648
ISSN-L : 2185-6648
Volume 68, Issue 5
Displaying 1-37 of 37 articles from this issue
Global Environment Engineering Research, Vol.20
  • Akio ONISHI, Naoyuki KAWAMURA, Keijiro OKUOKA, Feng SHI, Hiroki TANIKA ...
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_1-I_13
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     From the perspective of the finite resources of nature, transition to a stock-based society that reduces the amount of material input and waste is expected in the future. The material cycle in the construction sector is large; thus, it is essential that the material flow in this sector be reduced in order to reduce environmental impacts. Further, in order to understand the trends in the material flow of the construction sector, it is necessary to understand the future demand for material stock on the basis of social and economic factors. In this study, we focus on urban structures and organize the factors affecting the demand for existing structures. Moreover, we estimate future demand for urban structural material stock in each prefecture for each of the multiple scenarios that reflect different social perspectives. The result obtained from the estimation indicates that the reduction in urban structural material stock from 2000 to 2050 was most limited under the "urban concentration scenario" as compared with the other scenarios-BAU and dispersed settlement. Further, there was a substantial increase in the urban structural material stock per capita under this scenario during same period, while there was a decrease in this stock under the other two scenarios.
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  • Shogo HIGASHI, Reina KAWASE, Yuzuru MATSUOKA
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_15-I_24
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     This study focused on steel as an example of energy-intensive materials, and developed a model to estimate 1) service demands supplied from goods stocks, 2) the amount of steel stock included in the goods stocks, and 3) steel demands. This model was applied to time period for 2005-2050 with the assumption of four future scenarios including FIX scenario, in which parameters were fixed at a level of 2005.
     Reduction effects of steel stocks and steel demands were analyzed by the model. As the results, the steel demands of MIX scenario, which introduced high performance materials and the efficiency improvement of goods stocks, was the lowest among the scenarios and it showed 40% reduction compared with FIX scenario. The possibility for shifting towards dematerialized society was indicated, with keeping the service demands at the level of 2005.
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  • Xianjun LU, Toru MATSUMOTO
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_25-I_32
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     In this study, effects were evaluated of CO2 emission reduction due to home appliance replacement policy. The study estimated the average life time under two cases: a normal case and a replacement case were determined according to a local survey and then, based on the results, the investigation made clear the replacement volume due to the policy. Air conditioners were used as an example and the used stock, volume of sales and Weibull function were used to estimate the stock for each shipping year. Finally, using the electricity consumption by year the CO2 emission in these two cases was determined. The results showed that because of the replacement policy, energy-saving products spread quickly, achieving CO2 emission reduction of about 100 million tons when air conditioners were used.
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  • Reina KAWASE, Yuzuru MATSUOKA
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_33-I_40
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     To mitigate global warming, it is required to reduce global GHG emission 50% by 2050 relative to 1990 emission level. This research analyzed a feasibility of the GHG emission reduction. To achieve this objective, GHG emission was projected by assuming that improvement rates of Energy Intensity(EI) and Carbon Intensity(CI) were same as the change rates of past trend or future scenarios in past studies. And these emissions were compared with GHG emission reduction target by three burden sharing schemes such as Contraction & Convergence, Intensity and Burden by contribution.
     The results shows that in RED scenario (change rates of EI and CI are upper 5 percentile of change rates of past studies), GHG emission in 2050 has 67.2% reduction compared to 1990 level and achieves the global half reduction target under SSTAG scenario which has a low GDP growth rate. In SLCS scenario which has a high GDP growth rate, reduction potential of GHG emission is 32.5% compared to 1990 level, which can't achieve the target.
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  • Takeshi FUJIWARA, Eri ITO
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_41-I_48
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     Pacific island country without having manufacturing industry emphasizies on tourism industry which utilizes the natural resources. Island country imports lots of foods and commodity goods from oversea countries to supply for tourists during their stays, moreover, changes in resident's lifestyle from 'thrift type' to 'waste type' increases the amount import even more. The goods consumed by resident or tourist, has been disposed and stored in the island, and at present, the stored waste causes environmental pollution and landscape deterioration. Since small island country has difficulty in constructing final landfill, it is important to prevent waste generation due to construct a sound material-cycle society with a view of collaboration with foreign countries. For this purpose, by considering development in island economy and change in lifestyle of island people, it is necessary to identify the quality and quantity of solid waste which is generated at the present and future.
     In this research, Guam, a territory of U.S., is targeted. First of all, input-output table is developed to grasp the current economic situation of the island, and secondly, scenarios which are composed of changes in population of residents, future number of tourists, and expenditure to tourism industry are created. Then, the amount of discharged future household waste is estimated by considering economic ripple effect under the scenario.
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  • Siti Norbaizura MD REJAB, Tomohito HAMADA, Takeshi FUJIWARA
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_49-I_57
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     Compares to other middle income developing countries, Malaysia is emitting a significant amount of greenhouse gases (GHG) that causes global warming. Feasibility study on building a low-carbon society in its Multimedia Super Corridor city, Cyberjaya Digital Green City 2025 (DGC2025) was launched following the study of Putrajaya Green City 2025. The main objective of these studies is to build the cities to become a pioneer township in Green Technology. Smart 3R Cyberjaya is one of DGC2025 four themes and focuses on planning alternative solid waste management that fulfil the challenge of building both low-carbon and sound material society. Smart 3R Cyberjaya set the target of building a zero emission society that depend less on landfill and actively practicing waste reduction at source. This is quantitatively represent as 75% reduction of waste sent to landfill site and 50% reduction of total greenhouse gases emission, compare to 2025 business as usual scenario. Three counter measure scenarios were evaluated from combination of waste reduction at source; 2R actions and waste treatment selection; food disposer, recycling and thermal treatment. Solid wastes modelled in our scenarios are household solid waste, business solid waste, sludge, green waste and electrical and electronic waste (e-waste). In 2025, total waste generation is 207 ton/day and 1041 ton/year of e-waste. Both waste and GHG reduction target is achievable at 2025CM3 scenarios, 78% (172 t/day) and 84% (1459 t-CO2/day), respectively. Results of other scenarios could also give us a new image of alternative future society.
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  • Koji SHIMADA
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_59-I_65
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     It is extremely cruicial for Japan to reduce household electricity consumption so as to meet the first period target and address the tightness of electricity supply-demand after the Tohoku-Pacific Ocean Earthquake. However, only few studies which focuse on the relation between electricity demand, electricity price and consumtion expenditure in this sector can be found. In this context, while taking into account the stationarity and cointegration of variables, this study investigated Granger causality by using vector error correction (VEC) model, based on a panel data set of 9 Japanese regions during 1990-2008.
     As a result, this study shows that there are bidirectional positive causalities between household final consumption expenditure and electricity sonsumtion, and bidirectional positive/negative causalities between household electricity consumption and electricity price. It is important to incorporate these causalities into models when investigating the influence of electricity price hike and the effect of policy intervention to the price.
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  • Yuki MASUDA, Hirokazu KATO, Naoki SHIBAHARA, Kei ITO
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_67-I_76
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     This study aims at constructing a methodology for evaluating transport modes in terms of CO2 emission and performance (e.g., speed, comfort, safety). The proposed indicator is "eco-efficiency" - the ratio of performance life-cycle CO2 emission. The various performance factors of modes of transport are measured and integrated into a unit of travel speed. Four public transport modes (i.e., railway, subway, light rail transit (LRT), and bus rapid transit (BRT)) and 16 types of private vehicles are analyzed in selected transport scenes and traffic situations. The results indicate that life-cycle CO2 emission from passenger cars is greater than that from public transport. However, the eco-efficiency of passenger cars exceeds that of public transport taking into account amenities and occupancy in lower volume traffic and leisurely use.
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  • Yoshikazu MIYAMOTO, Kenji NARUSE, Tsuguo CHIMURA, Tomoyasu FUJITA, Shi ...
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_77-I_88
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     Building the support system of saving rescores for the farming with environmental care is urgent needed to prevent red soil runoff which gives negative impact of coral reef in addition to the current efforts in Okinawa Prefecture. In this paper, the support system was designed; which promote the farming with environmental care for prevention red soil runoff and provide incentive of achieve both improved income and conservation farm soil for cultivation. In addition, this system can sell certification agricultural products at the premium price in consuming markets and devote the portion of the proceeds to prevention measures. Case studies of this support system were attempted in 3 model regions and the intention of the consumer was investigated. As a result, the schemes of this support system has been built up and operated in 3 model regions. Then, this support system was accepted and these certification agricultural products were purchased by consumers in consuming markets.
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  • Masaharu IRITAKENISHI, Takeshi ADANUYA, Jun MATSUSHITA
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_89-I_98
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     This paper intends to verify the workability of proposed eco-economy-balanced agriculture model to be transfigured from the present mono-culture-style one which has been widely introduced after WWII to promote cash crop production in the islands. Assumedly, such eco-oroiented agriculture model should comply with long-standing traditional intercrop and/or crop rotation cultivation systems assimilated to local subtropical climate with animal excreta compost combined. Herupon, the authors set up test field to conduct the comparative study for two years to clarify the merits expected by those eco-economy-balanced agriculture system . As a result, those merits could be fully verified on the following points: productivity, profit, quality of the product and reduction of environmental impact due to top-soil erosin.
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  • Daisaku SATO, Hiromune YOKOKI, Yuji KUWAHARA, Ane TALIA, Hiroya YAMANO ...
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_99-I_104
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     Coral gravel is one of the important resources in the atoll islands, however, maintenance plan is not prepared due to the lack of fundamental information on morphological change. This research focused on the coral gravel spit formed in the southern tip of the Fongafale island of Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu, and measured changes of it by field investigation and satellite images. In addition, the potential of moving the gravel was considered by the Shields number evaluated from the monthly averaged wave field. The detected shape of coral gravel spit indicated that the tip of the spit changed actively. But the area of spit was stable. The calculated Shields number showed that the tip and ocean side coast has high transport potential of the coral gravel. However, the high transport potential was identified seasonally.
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  • Shion TAKEMURA, Yoshihisa AKAMATSU, Mahito KAMADA
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_105-I_110
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     Palau Islands have rich mangrove forests, and the government plans to use them as resource of ecotourism for economic development. A method for estimating potential habitat was developed using ecological niche model at Palau Islands, in order to provide basic information for sustainable planning. Setting the area of mangrove forest in each watershed as response viable, and using Watershed area, Mountain area, Plain area, mean SPI (Stream Power Index) at mountain area, mean TWI (Topographic Wetness Index) at plain area and Bay units as explanatory variables, generalized liners model was developed.
    Mean SPI at mountain area, Plain area, mean TWI at plain area and bay unit were selected as responsible environmental factors in the model. The result shows that extent of mangrove habitat is corresponded with an amount of sediment production in mountain area, capacity of sedimentation in plain area, and bay shape. Almost watersheds in Palau Islands have little potential for forming adequate habitat, and thus almost mangrove forests seem vulnerable against land alteration. Careful planning for land development is essential for the sustainable development.
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  • Teppei ISHIUCHI, Takekazu KOYANAGI, Yuji KUWAHARA, Kenichi OHASHI
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_111-I_119
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     This study analyzed the relationship between changes in the weather and icefall, satisfaction level of visitors, and we focused on the number of visitors to Fukuroda Falls. The result revealed a correlation between average temperature, amount of precipitation, icefall and the number of visitors. In addition, we studied the importance of icefall to visitors by conducting a survey on the current use of Fukuroda Falls for the winter season. About half of tourists find out about falls condition before visits, and they use television and internet. In this way, we showed that warmer temperatures lead to a decrease in times of icefalls and the number of visitors, that the necessity of transmission of information for icefall used television and internet.
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  • Masafumi FUJITA, Ryutaro INOUE, Daisaku SATO, Yuji KUWAHARA, Hiromune ...
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_121-I_125
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     Our previous paper reports that the major pollution source in lagoon-side coast on Funafuti atoll is domestic wastewater originating from bottomless septic tanks. To elucidate the run-off mechanism of domestic wastewater, dynamic change in water level of a septic tank was examined. Periodic variation in water level was corresponded to tide changes with a 3-4 hours of time lags. In addition, the concentration of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and the number of Escherichia coli (E. coli) in the coast at low tide was significantly higher than that at high tide. These results indicates that seawater penetrated into septic tanks during flood tides and subsequently domestic wastewater in septic tanks rans-off into the coast during ebb tides. Moreover, the transition from neap tide to spring tide had up to 26,600MPN/100mL of E. coli during ebb tide, whereas that just after spring tide showed up to 1,080MPN/100mL. From the results, we conclude that the history of tide changes controls the run-off load of domestic wastewater derived from bottomless septic tanks into the lagoon-side coast.
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  • Makoto UMEDA, Yuta OCHIAI
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_127-I_135
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     Reservoirs occupy a large portion of water resources in Japan. However, global warming can be a threatening factor of water use in the future through deterioration of water quality. In this study, influence of climate change to reservoirs was investigated in terms of water temperature through the changes of atmospheric temperature and solar radiation. 37 reservoirs were chosen from all over Japan considering their conditions such as location, capacity and hydraulic residence time. Vertical 1-dimensional numerical model was used to project changes of water temperature. Regression analysis was applied to assess the concentration of chlorophyll a from the total phosphorus of inflow and changes in water temperature.
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  • Yugo YAMAMOTO, Satoru KONOMA, Noboru YOSHIDA, Tohru MORIOKA
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_137-I_146
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     Bio-oil is a renewable and transportable liquid fuel produced by the fast pyrolysis of biomass resources, and it can be used as a fuel for direct combustion with natural gasses and heavy oils. In this paper, we evaluated the reduction effect in greenhouse gases (GHG) emission when introducing the bio-oil production technology into the sewage sludge incineration process, based on the life cycle assessment (LCA). We also developed the scenarios that showed when and how to replace the traditional incineration technology of sewage sludge with the bio-oil production technology in regional scale, and the GHG reduction effect in 6 scenarios were evaluated by applying LCA. The results of analysis showed that the bio-oil production by pyrolysis technology for the sewage sludge would reduce GHG emission by 54.3%, compared with the usual incineration. We also found that to make the transition to a centralized treatment of sewage sludge would reduce GHG emissions and promote the effective utilization of more sewage sludge.
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  • Yoshiya TOUGE, Kenji TANAKA, Eiichi NAKAKITA, Toshiharu KOJIRI
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_147-I_152
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     As a result of huge-scale irrigation project in the Soviet age, serious water scarcity has occurred in the Aral Sea Basin. Millions people are suffering especially in the downward area and the Aral Sea has shrunk to 10% from 1960's level. Sustainable irrigation project is required and this has to be based on scientific information about feasible water resource and water demand in irrigated farm. These information are necessary as basic and scientific information for sustainable development.
     In this study, water circulation model has been developed by land surface model with Aral Sea shrinking scheme and historical water balance in the Aral Sea Basin was reproduced.
     And with the model, scenalio analysis of changing irrigation method was examined. The scenalio was about improving irrigation efficiency and decreasing irrigated area. As a result, positive effects were cleared in all scenalios and the speed of the Aral Sea shrinking was more moderate than real situation.
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  • Kairi MORIZAWA, Yoshihiro ASAOKA, So KAZAMA
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_153-I_158
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     There are densely populated cities, such as the capital, La Paz and El Alto located in the western part of Bolivia. This area has an annual rainfall of only about 500 millimeters. Therefore, tropical glaciers in the Andes are important water resources for Bolivians. However, tropical glaciers are retreating under recent global warming and there are growing concerns about water shortage in the future. The amount of melting glaciers needs to be projected to grasp how much water is available in the future for this purpose. In this study, we estimated surface albedo in the visible range (from 0.4 to 0.7 um) which is one of parameters for calculating glacier melt and mapped the distribution of albedo on Condoriri glacier in Bolivia by using Landsat imageries from 1988 to 2011. As a result, average value of albedo on the glacier was 0.58, which was higher than albedo on water area (from 0.0 to 0.1) and albedo on bare area (from 0.1 to 0.4) on September 4, 2005.
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  • Yonghee SHIN, Kiyoshi TAKAHASHI, Naota HANASAKI, Yasuaki HIJIOKA
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_159-I_169
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     Climate change scenarios based on RCP emission scenarios were developed to contribute to the IPCC 5th assessment report. We analyzed annual change of surface air temperature, precipitation and solar insolation around Japan using 44 climate change scenarios based on 3 RCP scenarios and 12 GCM models. The results indicate that annual mean change of air temperature from the years 1980-1999 to 2080-2099 under RCP8.5 scenario was predicted to increase by 4.9°C, annual mean change of daily precipitation under RCP4.5 scenario was predicted to increase by 9.2%, annual mean change of solar insolation under RCP8.5 scenario was predicted to decrease by 8.7W/m2. In the case of air temperature change, there were not big differences between similar RCP and SRES scenario. In the case of precipitation change, there was low correlation between the similar emission scenarios, but it was predicted that precipitation will increase generally in the future. In the case of solar insolation change, it was predicted that solar insolation will increase under RCP scenarios, but it will decrease under SRES scenarios. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention when using the solar insolation datasets.
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  • Pichnaree LALITAPORN, Gakuji KURATA, Yuzuru MATSUOKA
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_171-I_182
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     Long-term trends of tropospheric NO2 columns from four satellites, GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI and GOME-2, are analyzed over the capital cities in Southeast Asia, Japan and China for the period 1996 to 2011. The results show a significant increase in tropospheric NO2 columns over Shanghai during the study period (21.5% yr-1, reference year 1996). The seasonal variability reveals a different pattern between the different city locations. The cities located in low- and mid- latitude show the maximum levels in wintertime and minimum in summertime. Reversely, those cities near Equator give the opposite results. The inter-comparisons between the satellites show reasonably well agreements with the correlations larger than 0.75. The consistency between NOx emissions from several regional and global emission inventories and tropospheric NO2 columns is investigated and give the different results for each city due to the effect of meteorology. The comparison of ground- and satellite-based NO2 are performed for several stations. The results illustrate better relations for OMI and GOME-2 than GOME and SCIAMACHY owing to the differences in satellite overpass time and spatial resolutions. Finally, the results of seasonal variability from GEOS-Chem simulation generally agree well with satellite measurements. However, the model underestimated retrieved tropospheric NO2 columns by the factor of 3-4.
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  • Yoko SHIMADA, Yuzuru MATSUOKA
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_183-I_191
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     In developing countries, most households use solid fuels (coal or biomass as wood, crop residues and animal dung). Particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) produced through indoor combustion of these fuels for cooking, heating and lighting has an adverse impact on people's health. We estimated PM2.5 personal exposure concentration in each indoor microenvironment for each personal group of urban and rural area in 29 states of India, using detailed statistical data on time use, domestic energy consumption, household and housing condition. The study found that, unemployed women between the ages of 35 and 64 using fire wood for cooking had higher estimate for PM2.5 personal exposure concentration during cooking than the other personal groups. The highest personal exposure concentration is 1033 μg/m3 for unemployed women in rural Rajasthan. Men are less affected by indoor PM2.5 than women, however, unemployed elderly men are more affected by indoor PM2.5 then employed women between the ages of 35 and 64.
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  • Minna GUO, Gakuji KURATA, Yuzuru MATSUOKA
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_193-I_204
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     Health effect from particulate matter, especially PM2.5 is the one of most critical issues in the world. In China, indoor use of solid fuel, such as coal and biomass, causes severe indoor exposure of PM2.5. In addition, with rapid increase of automobile use, road transportation becomes a major source for outdoor exposure of PM2.5 and also degrades the indoor air quality near the highway.
     In this study, indoor emission of PM2.5 was estimated based on domestic energy consumption statistics. Also the PM2.5 emissions from road traffic were estimated from traffic statistics and downscaling method to road segments. Then the concentration related to road transport was estimated by simplified roadside diffusion model.
     Finally, the micro-environmental exposure model was adapted to Chinese 31 provinces for age and attribution groups. As the results, the contribution from road transport was higher in urban area, while the contribution from indoor emission source was higher in rural area, with significant differences among sex and age groups.
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  • Yoshikazu KITANO, Tomohito J. YAMADA, Norihiro IZUMI
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_205-I_210
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     There are many unknown issues about line-shaped rainbands (LRBs) which is one of the meso-scale meteorological phenomena making torrential rainfall events in Japan. For disaster prevention, it is very important to reveal the formation mechanism of LRBs. In order to know the mechanism, the authors try to examine the instability of the density stratification. In this study, the rainfall and thermodynamic effects are not considered. To simplify the discussion, this theory considers only the up/down motion of the disturbance in the stratified atmosphere. Using this theory, the authors correlate the region of horizontal disturbance and the two parameters which characterize the shape of LRBs, i.e. the Froude number and the rate of density difference.
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  • Tomoko HASEGAWA, Yuzuru MATSUOKA
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_211-I_220
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     In Indonesia, in 2000 around 67% of domestic GHG emissions derives from Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU). It is important to evaluate quantitatively mitigation potentials and to specify countermeasures with large mitigation potentials. Using the AFOLU Bottom-up Model, we estimated GHG emissions and mitigation in AFOLU sectors based on a future scenario, harvested area of crops, number of livestock and land use change. Based on the analysis, in 2030 we found that GHG emissions in AFOLU sectors are expected to increase by 2.5 times at the 2000 level in the BaU case. 75% of emission in 2030 derives from peat land drainage. Under 10USD/tCO2eq of allowable abatement costs, 33MtCO2eq/year of GHG emissions can be reduced in agriculture, which corresponds approximately to 46% of agricultural emissions in 2000. Midseason drainage in rice paddies, fall incorporation of rice straw and high efficiency fertilizer application are expected to reduce around 11MtCO2eq/year. For the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry sectors, enhanced natural regeneration, reforestation and avoid deforestation will be the most cost-effective countermeasures considering cumulative mitigation potentials up to 2050.
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  • Kenichi TATSUMI, Yosuke YAMASHIKI, Kaoru TAKARA
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_221-I_226
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     This paper uses the iGAEZ (improved Global Agro-Ecological Zones) model for simulating wheat and maize yields on a global scale. We estimated the future agricultural production under climate change, based on iGAEZ model and climate projection for 2040-2059, 2080-2099 from general circulation models (A1B: 24, A2:19, B1:22 models) using the CMIP3 multi-model dataset. Results indicate wheat production in whole world have decreased in the near future and the future under the all scenarios. In addition, East Asia will likely get positive impacts on wheat production in the future. Moreover, it is found that reduction in maize productions on North and South America remains within small range. Under the SRES B1 scenario, developed and developing regions exhibit less contrast in crop yield changes, with the B1 future crop yield changes being slightly more favorable than those of the A1B, A2. B1 scenario is being relatively east to plan agricultural adaptation for long-term food supply and demand.
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  • Tomoko HASEGAWA, Shinichiro FUJIMORI, Yonghee SHIN, Kiyoshi TAKAHASHI, ...
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_227-I_236
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     This article assesses global climate change impact on food security, undernourishment population and macro economy caused by agricultural productivity change. Different socio-economic scenarios, climate conditions and availability of adaptation strategy are taken into account and agricultural sector's climate impact is comprehensively analyzed. Population, GDP and agricultural productivity are treated as socio-economic scenario elements. The results imply three things; namely 1) socio-economic condition is a fundamental factor for food demand and undernourishment population particularly in developing world, 2) climate impact is also an unignorable factor, and 3) adaptation can offset climate change negative impact.
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  • Akemi TANAKA, Kiyoshi TAKAHASHI, Yonghee SHIN, Yuji MASUTOMI, Yasuhiro ...
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_237-I_248
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     We assessed possibility of the Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ) model for applying to rice productivity in Hokkaido, Japan, and improved it in order to simulate rice yield change responding to climate in Hokkaido. Before improving GAEZ model, the simulated yield was almost zero in most of the calculated periods, which means, the original GAEZ model is not applicable to Hokkaido where strengthening cool tolerance of rice variety has been developed. We improved four points: (1) easing temperature requirement, (2) modifying biomass calculation, (3) predicting heading date and (4) predicting cool summer damage due to floral impotency. The improvement of (1) enables GAEZ model to apply for cold regions; but, it did not simulate the observed yield variation. A simulation with combination of (1), (2), (3) and (4) simulated the variation of observed data. Especially, taking account of cool summer damage due to floral impotency and predicting heading date contribute to more accurate simulation of the observed yield variation.
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  • Shota MITSUSHIO, Keiko UDO, Dai NAGAMATSU, Yuhei MATSUBARA, Akira MANO
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_249-I_254
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     Tottori Dune, located in San-in Coast, is the largest dune in Japan and stretches 16 km in the longshore direction and 2 km in the cross-shore direction. This study investigates characteristics of Hamasaka Dune deformation, which is a main part of the Tottori Dune in the late 2000s through three-dimensional eigenfunction analysis using monthly ground elevation data. The first spatial and temporal functions demonstrate that sedimentation occurred in the east side of the dune and erosion occurred in the west side and, additionally, the variation accelerated from 2007 to 2008. The relationship between vegetation cover ratio and the first spatial function indicates that vegetation has a function to stabilize the dune morphology.
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  • Kazuhiro YOSHIMI, Masato OKABE, Tadashi YAMADA
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_255-I_260
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     To clarify the effects of difference from rainfall pattern on runoff phenomenon contributes to the further development of the integrated flood control measures by the combination of various conventional flood control methods. Elucidating those effects is very useful to examine flood control plan. In this study, authors made pseudo rainfall patterns based on Typhoon Kathleen in September 1947 in Tone upper river basin and examined the effects of difference from rainfall pattern we created on runoff phenomenon. In consequence, it was indicated that peak discharge at Yattajima point of observation fluctuated from 19000 m3/s to 27000 m3/s depending on rainfall pattern. Furthermore, it was indicated that peak discharge at that point exceeds design flood discharge depending on rainfall pattern.
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  • Nagomu KOMATSU, Ryo KIMURA, Yoshiyuki YOKOO
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_261-I_266
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     The present study explored the effects of physiographic watershed characteristics on the index-flows of 95 days flow, 185 days flow, 275 days flow, and 355 days flow toward estimating the shapes of flow duration curves based on physiographic watershed characteristics in Japanese mountainous watersheds. A multiple regression analysis showed the 95, 185, and 275 days flows increase with annual rainfall. The 185, 275, and 355 days flows increased with Andosol coverage ratio and decreased with building coverage ratio. The obtained regression equations successfully estimated the index-flows only in the mountainous watersheds located between the Kii peninsula and the Kyushu region in Japan.
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  • Kouhei ARAKI, Kenichiro OKUMURA, Noriyuki YASUFUKU, Kiyoshi OMINE
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_267-I_272
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     Increasing frequency of heavy rainfall associated with climate change such as global warming is pointed out, subsequently impacts on its various industries are concerned. In Okinawa, since to the high temperature and heavy rainfall of the subtropical climate, erosion frequency occurs that weak red soil (Kunigami Maage) flows out from agricultural land, construction site and so on.This serious problem has not been resolved since 1950s. Moreover, not only limited in Okinawa, but also the weak soil erosion problem occurs in Kyushu Island, which also should be concerned in the future.
     In this study, by analysing the annual occurances variation of heavy rainfall and the mean temperature in recent 50 and 100 years, we are trying to grasp the current state of advancing subtropical in Kyushu. In addition, by taking field test at farmland in Ginoza-son, Kunigami-gun, Okinawa and investigating the relation among rainfall, soil erosion and volumetric water content, we are trying to grasp the soil erosion mechanism with climate change.
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  • Keisuke ONO, So KAZAMA, Shoya TEZUKA
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_273-I_278
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     In order to manage landslide hazard and mitigate subsequent damages, it is important to predict a occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides on a regional scale, especially in developing countries which often face difficulties to make predictions due to relative scarcities of landslide-related data. This paper used a physically-based stability model to analyze one landslide event in 2001 induced by a extreme rainfall in Phetchabun province, Thailand. This paper outlined the main features of the slope stability model. Consequently the model on the extreme rainfall event in 2001 predicted the shallow landslide hazard as follows. 1) The western side of the study area displayed the lowest factor of safety. 2) The predicted unstable grids included 70% of the observed landslides when the threshold of factor of safety was 1.00. 3) The predicted factor of safety showed a good correlation with the location of the observed landslides by using the literature-based parameters in the slope stability model. These results of the hazard map showed a certain potential as a landslides forecasting tool on a regional scale.
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  • Keiko UDO, Yuriko TAKEDA, Jun YOSHIDA, Akira MANO
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_279-I_285
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     This study investigates century-scale area change of Japanese two tidal flats facing Ariake Sea and Tokyo Bay and their future projections in order to estimate the effect of sea level rise due to climate change on the tidal flats. The long term area change shows that the notable erosion of tidal flats. The future projections using the recent sea bed topography and estimation result of sea level rise show that there are much difference between the future projections with and without consideration of vertical accretion rate. Possibility of serious damage of tidal flats was indicated, though more precise estimation considering other effects such as flood characteristic change due to the climate change is needed in future.
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  • Seiki KAWAGOE, Yuri ESAKA
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_287-I_296
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     The purpose of this study is to estimate the impact of human risk due to the slope failure with global warming. Extreme rainfall is obtained with Multi SRES and climate scenarios(GCM Model : MIROC3.2 Medres, MRI-CGCM2.3.2, GFDL CM2.1, CSIRO MK3.0, SRES : A1B, A2, B1) and calculated temporalspatial slope failure probability distribution (present year period, 2020 year period, 2050 year period, and 2090 year period). Impact response population developed to the slope failure probability in Japan. The results obtained are as follows; 1) High risk population is 1% of the total Japanese population (about 120million) in present period. 2) An increase in the high risk population of 10% estimated in the future at compared with present period. 3) The high risk population increasing tendency is estimated on Japan sea side in the future.
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  • Hajime ISHIHARA
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_297-I_304
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     A large quantity of radioactive material was released by the accident of the Fukushima First Nuclear Power Plant started from the outbreak of the East Japan great earthquake disaster of March 11, 2011. In not only the Fukushima prefecture but also the distantly remote metropolitan area, environmental pollution caused by the radioactivity occurs.From May, 2011, the news about the environmental pollution with the radioactive material was accomplished in the metropolitan area. The measurement of the radioactivity in schools and parks were demanded from inhabitants for local governments. Therefore I clarify what kind of correspondence action local governments took for the radiation measurement with the outbreak of this accident in this report.
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  • Daisuke KAMIYA, Yoshihisa AKAMATSU, Naoki ITAMOCHI, Hiroshi TAKEBAYASH ...
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_305-I_312
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     The heavy rain disaster is increasing in Japan. Activities of the disaster risk management based on communities are important in small and aged community. The purposes of this paper are arranging the subjects of the community based disaster prevention activities and proveing the policy for supporting to flood risk. The research region is Amami-Oshima island which the record torrential rain fall caused heavy flood disaster on 20th October, 2010. Social researches and a flood analysis were carried out for this disaster. The following things were cleard in this paper. It is important to create the evacuation plan assuming the daytime of the weekday. Residents have the recognition mistaken to the disaster. This is correctable by offering the result of simple analysis of flood.
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  • Kumiko KAJII, Mariko FUJIMORI
    2012 Volume 68 Issue 5 Pages I_313-I_321
    Published: 2012
    Released on J-STAGE: February 13, 2013
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
     This survey aimed to develop two methods to systematize adaptation technologies to climate change impacts in coastal zones, based on needs to facilitate technology transfer in a feasible way. One is to organize techniques systematically, and the other is to sort correspondence relationship between required actions (needs) and technologies which have adaptation effects in developed countries (seeds), for example, in Japan. It was found that: 1) Information on adaptation technologies should be obtained and examined from wide range of information sources in many sectors including technologies developed and applied not for adaptation but for another objectives, 2) Needs can be identified based on a set of causal relationship of climate factors, natural and social factors, primary impacts, and secondary impacts, and 3) Level of needs for adaptation technoligies in each coastal type can be evaluated according to qualitative criteria.
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