Analyzing Relation Between Irrigation Water Withdrawal and the Aral Sea Shrinkage by Land Surface Analysis - Toward the Sustailable Development in the Aral Sea Basin -

Abstract

 As a result of huge-scale irrigation project in the Soviet age, serious water scarcity has occurred in the Aral Sea Basin. Millions people are suffering especially in the downward area and the Aral Sea has shrunk to 10% from 1960's level. Sustainable irrigation project is required and this has to be based on scientific information about feasible water resource and water demand in irrigated farm. These information are necessary as basic and scientific information for sustainable development.
 In this study, water circulation model has been developed by land surface model with Aral Sea shrinking scheme and historical water balance in the Aral Sea Basin was reproduced.
 And with the model, scenalio analysis of changing irrigation method was examined. The scenalio was about improving irrigation efficiency and decreasing irrigated area. As a result, positive effects were cleared in all scenalios and the speed of the Aral Sea shrinking was more moderate than real situation.