Analysis of Feasibility for Achieving Global GHG Emission Reduction Target in 2050

Abstract

 To mitigate global warming, it is required to reduce global GHG emission 50% by 2050 relative to 1990 emission level. This research analyzed a feasibility of the GHG emission reduction. To achieve this objective, GHG emission was projected by assuming that improvement rates of Energy Intensity(EI) and Carbon Intensity(CI) were same as the change rates of past trend or future scenarios in past studies. And these emissions were compared with GHG emission reduction target by three burden sharing schemes such as Contraction & Convergence, Intensity and Burden by contribution.
 The results shows that in RED scenario (change rates of EI and CI are upper 5 percentile of change rates of past studies), GHG emission in 2050 has 67.2% reduction compared to 1990 level and achieves the global half reduction target under SSTAG scenario which has a low GDP growth rate. In SLCS scenario which has a high GDP growth rate, reduction potential of GHG emission is 32.5% compared to 1990 level, which can't achieve the target.