Abstract
This study assumes two different socio-economic scenarios for China, and analyzes whether it is possible for China to achieve a Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions reduction target which is consistent with global 50% reduction target in 2050.
The concepts of the two scenarios are;
SLCS: a society which accepts innovative changes actively with high economic growth
SSTAG: a society which is reluctant to innovative changes with relatively low economic growth
The GHG emissions reduction target for China is 66% reduction in 2050 from 2005 levels, which is calculated based on global 50% reduction targets in 2050 from 1990 levels and equal emissions amount per capita all over the world in 2050. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to analyze the economic effects of the GHG emission reduction target.
The results show that renewable energy introduction and the emission reduction of non-energy related GHG have the most significant effects to satisfy GHG emission constraints. In order to implement those counter measures, the emission cost of SLCS is 464USD/tCO2eq. and that of SSTAG is 395USD/tCO2eq. in 2050. In addition, the GDP loss caused by GHG emissions reduction of SLCS is 7.9% and that of SSTAG is 8.3% in 2050.
