Abstract
Regional population distribution bears a causal relationship to the affects on CO2 emission in transportation sector. In this study, we demonstrate analysis on per-capita automobile CO2 emission of centralized and decentralized population distribution scenarios. First, we develop a regression formula which estimates per-capita automobile CO2 emission at each mesh population rank, by using the population censuses of 1980 to 2005 aggregated under a mesh system, as well as the per-capita automobile CO2 emission of 1980 to 2005 in each Japanese municipality. Next, we analyze to estimate per-capita automobile CO2 emission of 2030 and 2050, by applying the population in each mesh at the centralized or decentralized scenario in 2030 and 2050 to the formula. As a result, we display an evaluation of per-capita automobile CO2 emission at the centralized and the decentralized scenarios. The estimated change rate of percapita automobile CO2 emission at centralized senarios in 2030 is -4%, at decentralized senarios in 2030 is +1%, at centralized senarios in 2050 is -3%, and at decentralized senarios in 2050 is +6%.
