Abstract
In order to make renewal planning for aged water main, the estimation for pipe failure rate is required. The formulae for prdecting pipe failure rate have been developed in large waterworks bureaus. However, medium and small waterworks departments generally do not have their own prediction method because the accumulation of pipe break data is necessary to make the formula. In this paper, the method to obtain pipe failure predicting formula with insufficient accumulation of pipe break data using previously presented ones is examined. The Baysian statistics was used to develop the method. The presented method showed valid results to predict pipe failure rate in case studies.
