Abstract
This paper examines the risk assessment of aging distribution pipelines, focusing on the maintenance and management of water distribution pipeline facilities which are indispensable for supplying water continuously. Water leaks often cause great damage to the activities of cities, and because water pipelines are laid underground, it is crucial to perform preventive maintenance to avoid such accidents.
In this study, a regression model of the accident rate for various water pipes was constructed from data on the number of leaking pipes recorded and stocked in the Tokyo district between 2001 and 2010 and the total pipeline length estimated for the last decade by age and type of pipe. Furthermore, the risk of regional accidents based on a future scenario was assessed by estimating the number of leakage accidents using the constructed model and a 250×250 meter mesh map of Tokyo. From the results, the important meshes with high risk were indicated quantitatively, which will be useful information for the pipe renewal planning.
