Uncertainty in Estimation of Future Beach Erosion in Japan due to Sea Level Rise

Abstract

 This study estimates future beach erosion in Japan due to sea level rise and evaluates its uncertainty. Future beach erosion rate in Japan is estimated to be 47% for the sea level rise of 0.26 m which is the lower limit value and 91% for 0.82 m which is the upper limit value of future sea level rise reported in IPCC AR5. The erosion rate also corresponds to estimation values in an existing study which was estimated using a different beach dataset. It is inevitable that most of beaches in Japan will be affected seriously by the sea level rise even if we take into account the uncertainty in the estimation.