Estimation of compound disasters of flood and storm surge under climate change.

Abstract

 The damage caused by various disaster phenomena was quantified in the form of map information, and these economic damages were estimated on 2 disasters, namely flood and storm surge . Map information and GCM data were utilized after the data formats were unified. The estimated costs of these disasters were calculated in current, 2050 and 2100 climates by using several GCM modesls and climate scenarios. The probability of simultaneous incidence of these 2 disasters was estimated using the influence functions. The influence functions were estimated by the relations between air pressure and high tide and between air pressure and precipitation. This probability of simultaneous incidence was involved. The damage under current-climate was estimated to 78 billion YEN, which is 1.4 times biggher than flood statistics. The damages will be between 1.1 trillion YEN and 1.2 trillion YEN under 2050 climate and 1.2 trillion YEN and 1.4 trillion YEN under 2100 climate.