Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research)
Online ISSN : 2185-6648
ISSN-L : 2185-6648
Journal of Environmental Systems Research, Vol.43
NEW SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIO SSP QUANTIFICATION OF THE AIM'S EXAMPLE AND ITS CHARACTERISTIC
Shinichiro FUJIMORITomoko HASEGAWAToshihiko MASUIKiyoshi TAKAHASHIDiego SILVA HERRANHancheng DAIYasuaki HIJIOKAMikiko KAINUMA
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2015 Volume 71 Issue 6 Pages II_217-II_228

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Abstract
 SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) has been widely used for various climate change researches. Since 2007, a new scenario process has been started and the new socioeconomic scenario socalled SSPs are included within that process. SSPs are expected as the basis of multiple climate change research communities namely; earth system model groups and climate change impact groups. Meanwhile, there is a criticism to integrated assessment models about the transparency of model description and parameters. According to such background, this paper has two aims. One is to make the SSPs quantification procedure transparent as much as possible. The other is comparing quantified SSPs with existing well known scenarios; namely SRES and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and revealing the characteristics about the SSPs in order to provide meaningful information to the other climate change research communities. As results, we found several things. First, air pollutants are smaller than SRES but larger than RCP. It would provide an opportunity investigating aerosol effects to earth system models. Second, cropland increases in all SSPs while SRES include strong decrease scenarios. It would be critical factors for agriculture, water resource and ecosystem assessment.
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© 2015 Japan Society of Civil Engineers
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