OCCURRENCE POSSIBILITY OF TIPPING ELEMENTS UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE

Abstract

 In this study, we analyzed occurrence possibility of tipping elements, what cause a big impact to society, by abrupt transition with passing a tipping point under future climate change. According to tipping point in previous studies, we derived relationship between tipping elemnts (Arctic summer sea-ice loss and melt of Greenland ice sheet), and RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) using multi-GCMs and Strategic scenarios as mitigation target. As a result, occurrence possibility of tipping elements in each RCP were indicated even though there are uncertainty of tipping point. In case of analysis using strategic scenario, we showed that it is possible to discuss including of uncertainties of climate scenario and tipping element itself.