EMPIRICAL STUDY ON IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE PRODUCTIVITY FOR 41 MUNICIPALITIES IN HYOGO, JAPAN

Abstract

 We, using 7 years of panel data of 41 municipalities in Hyogo, Japan, analyzed the relationship between rice productivity and climate and economic factors, and assessed the impact of future temperature increase on rice productivity. The findings of this study are as follows. (1) The relationships between rice productivity and temperature were an inverted U-shaped before a heading time and a negative linear after it. (2) The changes in rice yield by future temperature increase scenarios using results of MIROC5 were estimated to be from decrease of 2.00% to increase of 0.04% in the RCP2.6, from decrease of 0.28% to 3.22% in the RCP4.5, and from decreases of 1.90% to 7.10% in the RCP8.5, respectively. (3) As most municipalities in Hyogo were unable to cope with future temperature increase, they need adaptation strategies for rice productivity.