Abstract
Changes in crop yield due to future climate change will affect land use, agricultural production volume, and prices in the agriculture sector, as well as macroeconomics. While there has been much research into food prices and food security using economic models, there is little research on macroeconomic effects. Therefore, this study clarifies the macroeconomic impacts of crop yield changes using the CYGMA model, which is one of the most advanced global yield models, the AIM / CGE economic model, and the AIM / PLUM land use distribution model. In doing so, we dealt with factors and uncertainty that affect macroeconomics as much as possible, such as adaptation measures due to land use change, socioeconomic conditions, CO2 fertilization effects, and the uncertainty of climate models. This showed that the CO2 fertilization effect and the land use adaptation measures did not necessarily produce distinct differences in macroeconomic effects, and were smaller (0.02-0.06%) than the economic impacts of climate change in other commonly known sectors. However, socioeconomic conditions changed their values greatly and there was a large influence (0.6%) that can be compared with other sectors based on a pessimistic world scenario, such as a large population increase and low incomes.
