EVALUATION OF FLOOD DAMAGE COSTS BY GLOBAL WARMING WITH THE DYNAMIC CGE MODEL

Abstract

 It has been very considerable interest in not only the mitigation policies for achievement of GHG (Greenhouses gas) reduction target at COP 21 but also the adoption policies for damage by global warming. The adoption policies are necessary to be evaluated by measuring the reduction damage costs as the benefits. However it has included some problems to estimate the damage costs by global warming, for example it is thought that the estimation of flood damage costs which is more serious by global warming is not necessarily accurate. In this paper, the accurate method of flood damage costs is shown by Ramsey optimal dynamic model based on Morisugi's research. And we build the dynamic CGE model based on the Ramsey model and evaluate the flood damage costs in Yamanashi Prefecture by numerical simulation. When the direct flood damage cost is 74 billion yen/year, household economic loss by being evaluated based on EV is calculated 121 billion yen/year, so the ratio become 1.692.