DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE ESTIMATION PROCEDURE FOR WATER PIPE DAMAGE BY EARTHQUAKE DISASTER WITH PROBABILISTIC APPROACH

Abstract

 Earthquake resistance of the water pipe distribution network has been recently required for earthquake disaster risk reduction. In particular, from the perspective of disaster resilience, it is considered necessary to estimate damage cites of pipeline after earthquake for establishment of emergency restoration plan of water pipeline system. The objectives of this research is to construct a discretized damage estimation method using probability theory focusing on individual pipe. Specifically, each pipe was classified according to the pipe attribute, and a corresponding damaging function model was developed. Considering the problem of the variation rate of damage rate due to uncertain factors, a damage determination using Poisson distribution was established.