FUTURE CHANGE OF INTENSITY IN THE CASE OF TYPHOON 1821 DERIVED FROM PESUDO GLOBAL WARMING EXPERIMENT

Abstract

 We conduct the control experiment (CTL) and pseudo global warming experiment (GW) of the ty-phoon 1821 by WRF model. CTL successfully reproduces the typhoon track and the central pressure of Best Track Data. In GW, compared with CTL, the typhoon track is almost the same and the central pres-sure decreases more than 10 hPa. The future change of the wind intensity in almost all the coastal area of Osaka and Wakayama prefecture strengthens more than 20%. In addition, GW produces strong wind more than 25 m/s over the large area of Keihanshin region and the maximum amount of 3 hour precipitation also increases significantly over the large area of Kinki region. Moreover, in Hokuriku region, wind intensifies more than 30% in the large part of the coastal area.