SIMULATION OF STORM SURGE DUE TO TYPHOON JEBI 2018 AND PREDICTION UNDER GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIO

Abstract

 Escalation of storm surge risk under climate change is a concern. It is valueable to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of global warming on storm surge. Simulation and future prediction by pseudo global warming experiment (PGW) of storm surge induced by typhoon JEBI 2018 were carried out using Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and Surge-Wave-Tide coupled model (SuWAT). The storm surge heights simulated by SuWAT based on WRF meteorological data represented the observations well compared to the heights based on the results of empirical model. PGW results showed the decrease of the central pressure of the typhoon and the increase of the maximum wind speed in the eastern part of the Osaka Bay. The maximum surge level increased by 87 cm at Osaka observation site based on PGW, and the maximum sea level predicted 157 cm increase by taking into account sea level rise due to global warming.