Implications of near-term mitigation actions for mid-century energy investments in Asia

Abstract

 The Paris Agreement climate goals would require large scale transitions in global energy investment from fossil based infrastructures to low-carbon energy systems. In this regard, Asian regions would play an important role in the global energy system transformation. In the context of Japan’s development strategies, it would be important to estimate investment needs in Asia, associated with the near-term ambition of the national low-emission targets. Here we present the energy investment needs and their changes with enhanced near-term mitigation targets in Asian countries using a global energy system model. Our results suggested that delayed mitigation actions in the near-term and associated rapid transition between 2030 and 2050 would increase the long term energy investment. Without enhancing the 2030 emission reduction target, energy investment would be doubled by 2050 relative to the global cost optimal 2°C scenario. Particularly, coal power plants without carbon capture and storage are stranded by 2050. Without enhancing the near-term ambitions in Asian countries, the stranded capacity of coal power plant is doubled by 2050 relative to the global cost optimal scenarios for achieving the global 2°C goal.