COMPARATIVE EVALUTION OF GOSHAWK’S FUTURE HABITAT BASED ON SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF LAND USE IN KANSAI REGION

Abstract

 This study aims to determine the effects of population configuration differences on the goshawk habitat, such as land-use change, natural and productive capital selection, and density versus dispersal. The authors first propose a method to downscale habitat information from 10 km resolution to 5 km resolution by cluster analysis of the land cover area to construct a species distribution model. Next, to predict the effects of future land-use change, the authors build a species distribution model for the goshawk in the Kansai region using the proposed method. Finally, we applied the estimated land cover data for 2050 based on the BaU scenario and four future scenarios presented by PANCES to the species distribution model to estimate suitable habitat for the goshawk and compared the proper habitat for the BaU scenario and each scenario. As a result, the proposed method can estimate the distribution of goshawks with four times the spatial resolution. However, the kappa statistic of the non-downscaled species distribution model is slightly reduced due to increased uncertainty. The proposed method allows us to construct a model that reflects the goshawk ecology better than the centroid method. It is shown that the future land cover of Natural capital-based compact society scenario is most suitable for the goshawk habitat.