MODELLING PAVEMENT CRACK PROGRESSION PROCESSES BY HIERARCHICAL EXPONENTIAL HAZARD MODELS

Abstract

The types of pavement crack are multiple, most typically including lengthways, side ways, and length-and-side ways cracks. In this paper, the states of crack progression are described as a set of combinations of degrees and types of cracks. And the crack progression processes with two types of state variables are formulated by a hierarchical exponential hazard model, by which the state transition probability can be modeled by the Markov transition matrices. Based upon the empirical dataset, the model is estimated to investigate the impacts of road structure, pavement characteristics, and highway environment upon he progressions rates of cracks on pavement.