Abstract
An assessment of hydrologic response (basin hydrology for snowmelt runoff, flood and drought) to future climate change in the Tone river basin was carried out using distributed biosphere hydrological model with energy balance based multilayer snow physics (WEB-DHM-S) and with integrated dam operation modules. Bias corrected output of the numerical weather prediction modeling with the incremental dynamical downscaling and analysis system (INDDAS) technique was used for long-term hydrologic simulation (1981-2009 and 2081-2109). Although variation in winter precipitation was found insignificant in future, summer precipitation was found remarkably increased. Hydrologic simulation results showed that snow melts at faster rate in future due to rise in temperature causing a considerable shift of snowmelt runoff from May to April at snow dominated sub basins. Top 30 flood analysis revealed that future flood risk at Fujiwara dam is reduced by the shift of seasonality of snowmelt runoff however, the flood at Yattajima point showed an increasing trend. Likeliness of drought in future will be reduced as future low flow will increase; however yearly analysis of the water level, dam inflow and outflow revealed that severe drought will prevail in future which follows the trend of occurrence of drought in the past.
