Abstract
In recent years, some flash flood disasters, caused by Guerrilla-heavy rainfall events(GHR events), occurred in urban area in Japan. Although it is pointed out that the number of torrential rainfall events becomes more and more due to global warming, the impact of climate change on such events is not clear yet.
In this study, we would like to estimate the future tendency of the occurrence frequency of the GHR events in the Kinki region in August, by analyzing simulation outputs of the 5-km-mesh regional climate model(RCM5). We recognized relatively rough rainfall distribution which can be expressed in the RCM5 resolution, by smoothing the rainfall distribution of XRAIN. As the main analysis, we used visual judgement to pick up the possible GHR events, directly from the precipitation output data of present-day and future simulation data of RCM5. As a result, it was indicated that the number of days of such events will significantly increase in August, especially at the end of it, in the future.
