FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NAGARA RIVER BASIN

Abstract

 This research proposes a procedure to conduct climate change impact assessment on flood risks aiming smooth risk communication. The large ensemble database “d4PDF” was applied to flood runoff analysis used by the river manager. The hydrological observation data was utilized for verification of the model calculation results. The proposed method was verified in the Nagara River basin. The results of the flood runoff analysis by the annual maximum rainfall event extracted from d4PDF NHRCM 20 well represented the distribution of annual maximum flood observations. Although the influence of the spatial resolution of the climate model is still unclear, the assessment procedure presented by this research has versatility applicable to other domestic river basins.