ANALYSIS OF FATALITIES DUE TO FLOOD DISASTERS IN JAPAN AND DEVELOPMENT OF A LOSS OF LIFE ESTIMATION METHOD

Abstract

 We analyzed the human damage situation caused by the recent flood disasters in Japan and developed a new loss of life estimation method for flood risk assessment. The relationship between fatality rate and inundation situation, which are represented by inundation depth and water rise speed, was analyzed. In the analyzed disasters, fatalities occur only when water depth is higher than 1.5-2m and fatality rate is high when water rise speed is rapid. The developed model estimates loss of lives for each class defined by water rise speed, timing of inundation and age, of which fatality rate are obtained based on the observed fatality rate. The applicability of the model was examined by applying to the flood disasters in Japan and the result shows that the model can accurately estimate loss of lives caused by the flood disasters in Japan.