INTEGRATED FUTURE PROJECTION FOR PROBABLE RAINFALL INTRODUCING INFORMATION THEORY

Abstract

 This study proposes a method to quantify the degree of freedom of the annual maximum rainfall given by the climate system as entropy and to predict the future change of the probable rainfall based on the entropy. In particular, we have developed a method for calculating the probable rainfall in the future period by calculating the process of increasing entropy of the annual maximum rainfall from observed information and constructing a Bayesian predictive distribution that preserves the process of increasing entropy. The time series of sequential probable rainfall obtained by the proposed method can be a useful indicator for considering project options based on a real time axis when considering the staged development of flood control management.