A STUDY ON THE APPLICATION OF MASSIVE ENSENBLE CLIMATE PREDICTION DATA TO FLOOD CONTROL PLANNING

Abstract

 This study revealed the issues related to the use of large-scale ensemble climate projection data, which is necessary to consider flood control planning in light of climate change. The analysis is based on the case studies of Shonai River and Kano River. The future change multipliers of the annual maximum rainfall at the planned rainfall duration under the global mean temperature increase of 2 and 4 degrees Celsius were estimated from the climate projection data with a spatial resolution of 5 km. The results under the 4 degrees Celsius temperature increase were generally consistent with the future change multipliers presented by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. On the other hand, the results for the Shonai River are larger than those of the MLIT when the temperature rises by 2 degrees Celsius, indicating that precipitation will be larger when the temperature rises by 2 degrees Celsius than when it rises by 4 degrees Celsius. The possibility that the number of ensemble experiments may affect the characteristics of such precipitation change multipliers is clarified by validation using 20 km spatial resolution climate projection data with a large number of ensembles.