ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TEMPERATURE RISE AND FREQUENCY CHANGE RATE IN EXTREME RAINFALL EVENTS USING d4PDF PAST AND FUTURE EXPERIMENTS

Abstract

 The changes in future extreme precipitation that will occur due to anthropogenic climate change remain an important subject. Extreme precipitation is proportional to the amount of atmospheric precipitation available, possibly following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship (7%/°C). In this study, we attempted to analyze the influence of the application of CC scaling on the frequency change rate of extreme precipitation events with different time scales in Japan using d4PDF past and future climates experiments for +1.5K, +2K, and +4K rise in the global mean surface air temperatures. The results showed that the frequency change rate of the past period was within the theoretical range of the CC scaling, regardless of the precipitation duration. The frequency change rate of future periods tend to fall below the theoretical range of CC scaling as temperature increases. However, result for the most extreme event with 1-hour precipitation in the 4 °C temperature increase experiment showed that the increase in frequency change rate was within the theoretical CC scaling range in the northwestern Kyushu, western Chugoku, Hokuriku, Kanto, Tohoku, and Hokkaido regions.