2014 Volume 70 Issue 5 Pages I_187-I_196
In this study, a validation of tsunami evacuation simulation is conducted by means of comparing a result of the simulation with results of questionnaires of evacuation activity to evacuees of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami. A target area of the simulation is a nearshore area in a bay of a ria coast of Tohoku district, and the number of the evacuees is approximately 4,700. In the simulation, each evacuee select his or her evacuation site and route in accordance with the shortest route choice problem with the capacity limit of the evacuation sites, "Conditional p-median problem". The evacuee's initial walking speed is defined by parameters which were introduced by the results of the questionnaires, in terms of a proportion of elder persons and a proportion of persons who evacuate in group. According to the result of the simulation, a shape of a curve which expresses the relation between the time and ratio of the evacuees who arrive at their goal is also seems to be agree with the result of the questionnaire. In spite of the problem that the method of the evacuation route choice adopted in the simulation is not well agree for some evacuees such as the evacuees who make complex evacuation routes, it is found that the result of the evacuation simulation is agree with the result of the tsunami evacuation activity on foot at a nearshore area in a bay of a ria coast.
