Abstract
In 2012, new LCCs have entered into Japanese domestic air transport market. All of the new LCCs; Peach, Jetstar Japan and Air Asia Japan are partially subsidized companies of existing FSAs. The air fare of the new LCCs are significantly lower than the legacy FSAs. This impact caused the increase of OD demand, however the FSAs might lose demand (cannibalization). It is the first experience in Japan that this kind of price shock takes place in domestic air market.
This paper analyzes the above effects in air demand quantitatively in Osaka (KIX)-Sapporo (CTS) market. We assume the situation that the new LCCs do not enter, and estimate short run air demand trend by means of time series analysis. Then the comparison of the estimated demand and the actual air demand by airline decomposes the change in air demand into competitive effects and demand inducing effects.
