A STUDY ON TRAFFIC DEMAND PREDICTION FOR NATIONAL EXPRESSWAYS BASED ON USER EQUILIBRIUM ASSIGNMENT MODEL

Abstract

 This study aims to develop a traffic demand prediction model for national expressways based on user equilibrium assignment model. The proposed model consists of a nested logit model aiming at the improvement of prediction accuracy of the national expressway network, and the structure of simply presuming the log sum use of local roads in the conversion ratio calculation. Moreover, it examines the setting of route choice options in consideration of the difference of expressway use characteristics and the present toll discount policies by area. It is checked that the prediction accuracy of the model is good. Finally, the paper also proposes a model corresponding to toll free policy of the existing expressways with the OD data of the expressway use obtained from the application of a toll-free expressway pilot program in 2010 when a road traffic census was also conducted.