MODELLING OF TSUNAMI EVACUATION BEHAVIOR ACCOUNTING FOR DYNAMICS OF HETEROGENEITY IN EXPECTED UTILITY

Abstract

 This paper focuses on a decision making of evacuation start timing. This primary objective is to account for a dynamics of heterogeneity in expected utility. Decision-makers don't have the correct expected utilities at the time of inexperienced disasters. We extend a dynamic discrete choice model for the dynamics of heterogeneity. Our parameter estimation method assumes the expected utilities as parameters and get the perceived and feasible expected utilities. The model performance is demonstrated using evacuation behavior data in 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. The variance of the expected utilities increases when it is closer to the tsunami arrival time. It shows that the behaviors of evacuees diverge as time progresses.