2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_423-I_434
In many Japanese cities, while population is predicted to be decreased in the future, concept of the compact city is attracting a lot of attention. In planning and developing a compact city, it is necessary to take into account mitigation of natural disasters and it is inefficient to gather facilities in vulnerable areas to natural disasters from the view point of maintenance of infrastructure. In this paper, the model which can estimate time series change of population distribution in a city considering the flood risk based on the location equilibrium theory is developed, and the empirical model for Toyama city which is famous for the compact city policy is constructed. With the empirical model, we verified the effect of the residential induction policy which Toyama city actually conducted, and analyzed the impacts of two policy options which are considered to reduce flood risk on population distribution in the city from 2010 to 2040. As results of the analyses, the impacts of the options are indicated as follows. The residential induction option which gives subsidy for household moving in specific areas increases population of the downtown area. The regulation option which prohibits new location of household in specific suburban areas decreases population of the areas. The recognition option which raises the risk recognition of the citizens increases population of suburban areas near the railway station or the LRT station.