BOOTSTRAP ESTIMATION OF CONFIDENCE INTERVALS AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF OD AND LINK FLOWS

Abstract

This study demonstrates a bootstrap estimation of probability distribution of OD and link flows. We made a trial case study using Kumamoto Metropolitan Area person trip survey and had several findings: 1) OD flows of whole trip purpose follow normal distribution, but shopping OD flows do not follow normal distribution. 2) Link low distribution in links with fewer traffic or saturated links are skewed and not normal distribution. 3) The user-benefit distribution of new ring road is right skewed.