LOCAL INTERACTION BASED MODEL TO UNDERSTAND HOUSEHOLD EVACUATION BEHAVIOR IN A HEAVY RAIN SITUATION

Abstract

 In a disaster situation, people are easy to do similar behaviors of others because they don't have enough disaster-experiences to decide by just themselves. Our local interaction based model evaluate influences of others' behaviors to understand evacuation timing. The proposed model introduces a preference of inequality aversion on spatial and social network. Our model performance is demonstrated using evacuation behavior data in 2004 heavy rain disaster of Niihama city. The parameters are estimated by a pseudo maximum likelihood estimation method. Our results show that influences of others are difference depending on their relationships and social networks.