2017 Volume 73 Issue 5 Pages I_147-I_161
This paper develops a short-run economic damage assessment model. The model contains two sub models. One is the conventional traffic assignment model, which calculates traveling time under the damaged transportation infrastructure. The other is the economic damage assessment model, which determines the decrease in production level in the short run. This model can analyze the factors that affect economic damage the most in each industry in each zone. As a case study, we applied this model to the Chukyo metropolitan area to evaluate the short-run economic damage of the Nankai Trough Earthquake. In addition, we also analized the effects of recovery plans for transport facilities and the influences on the time shift of the economic damage by considering inventories of intermediate goods. As a result, it is assumed that the comprehensive policy, considering the recovery timing, the damage factor and the regional characteristics, should be planned.