2017 Volume 73 Issue 5 Pages I_507-I_515
In this study, we developed a diffusion model of shared fully-automated vehicles (LV5) and applied this model to the impact analysis of vehicle price, urban extent, population and travel speed on the LV5 dissemination. As a result, we found 1) the LV5 is expected to obtain the certain share of demand even under the 10-fold high cost of conventional personally-owned vehicles, 2) the share of LV5 vehicles is sensitive not only to the vehicle cost but also to the urban extent and travel speed, 3) urban population does not affect the LV5 share, 4) the high share of LV5 can be achieved even with the high vehicle cost if the urban extent is compact. These results indicate that the shared LV5 service should be introduced in the small cities with compact urban extent initially if the cost of LV5 is expensive. To achieve the higher diffusion rate of LV5, the shared service should be introduced in large cities according to the cost reduction of vehicles.