2021 Volume 77 Issue 4 Pages 375-388
Recently, appropriate planning for urban shrinkage with the viewpoint of mitigating disaster risks has become more important under situations such as climate changes and depopulations. This study aims to examine the future population of 2040 that will be exposed to landslide prone areas, to design the future urban structure scenarios including the mitigation of landslide disaster risks and to evaluate them from multiple perspectives to assess the impact of urban shrinkage on each evaluation. Major findings are as follows: (1) It is assumed that 17.6% of population in 2040 will live in landslide prone areas. (2) Comparing BAU, urban structure scenarios with mitigating landslide disaster risks have higher evaluation in all indices selected from the “Handbook on Evaluation of Urban Structure.” (3) Restricting the renewal of houses that exceed the useful life in 2040 in landslide prone areas and migrating the people who will live there to inducing areas for dwelling may be possible to construct a sustainable future urban structure.
