Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)
Online ISSN : 2185-6540
ISSN-L : 2185-6540
Infrastructure Planning and Management Vol.39 (Special Issue)
CAUSAL INFERENCE FOR THE EFFECT OF TIME WHEN DISASTER IS IMMINENT ON EVACUATION —A CASE STUDY OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT OF 2018 JULY—
Mamoru YOSHIDARyuji KAKIMOTO
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2022 Volume 77 Issue 5 Pages I_203-I_211

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Abstract

This paper aims to estimate the effect of time when heavy-rain disaster is imminent on evacuation behaviour with a framework of causal inference in statistics. In details, distinguishing evacuation from the risky area from shelter-in-place in evacuation behavior during a heavy-rain event, this paper verified the difference of evacuation behaviour such as evacuation site and evacuation transportation mode. As results, it was cleared that people were likely to evacuate from the risky area by car in daytime. In addition, it was shown that availability of “shelter-in-place” and “evacuation by car” options affected evacuation behaviors; in particular, people in a one-story house were likely to evacuate from the risky area even at the time be-tween 18:00-24:00.

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© 2022 Japan Society of Civil Engineers
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