2023 Volume 79 Issue 10 Article ID: 22-00222
In recent years, Shinkansen construction tends to be delayed significantly from the original plan, and the reduction of construction expenditure due to financial constraints on Shinkansen construction is one of the reasons for the delay. Although the delay of Shinkansen construction may cause economic loss, there are no previous studies that comprehensively analyze the causes of the delay and its economic and financial consequences, while certain cases have been studied separately. In this study, we quantitatively evaluate the delay of Shinkansen constructions. Then, based on assumptions regarding the relationship between financial constraints on Shinkansen construction and Shinkansen construction delays, we analyzed the effects of the current financial constraints on the national economy and tax revenues. The results indicated that the current financial constraints may cause significant economic and fiscal losses, such as a decrease in cumulative nominal GDP (up to about 266 trillion yen) and tax revenues (up to about 35 trillion yen) by 2050. In order to curb these losses, it is considered necessary to modify the austerity fiscal policy, spend sufficient project cost, and accelerate the construction of Shinkansens.
