RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR BEARING CAPACITY OF SHALLOW FOUNDATION AFTER SCOURING UNDER LIVE LOAD BY BAYESIAN INFERENCE

Abstract

In recent years, along with heavy rainfall, damage to bridge foundations caused by scouring has increased. Even if residual displacement occurs in the foundation, early emergency restoration is realizable if the residual bearing capacity can be retained. A Bayesian inference method for load–settlement curves of shallow foundation after scouring has been proposed previously. This method allows residual bearing capacities to be predicted using light loads. In this study, we use the abovementioned method to estimate the probability of failure during the live loads and investigate the difference in the probability of failure due to the observation error size and number of loading phases.