Japanese Journal of JSCE
Online ISSN : 2436-6021
Special Issue (Ocean Engineering)Paper
UNCERTAINTIES IN PORT SEDIMENTATION PREDICTIONS AND EFFECT DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Isao YAMAUCHINaoya ABESHIMAShinichi TABATATetsuya HAYAKAWAJunichi OTSUKASeiji HIRANOYasuyuki NAKAGAWA
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2023 Volume 79 Issue 18 Article ID: 23-18084

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Abstract

 In sediment transport analysis for port burial, it is essential to understand the model error and the external force level of the waves to evaluate the calculation results. In this study, the results of sedimentation analyses of ports in Hokkaido show the importance of indicating the area where the model reproducibility was confirmed and also statistically show that the error of the calculated sedimentation rate from the measured value is about 20% with a standard deviation of σ and about 40% with a standard deviation of 2σ. We also found that in ports, where relatively high correlations between sedimentation rate and wave energy can be obtained, these relationships enable the estimation of sedimentation rates from wave observations without sedimentation analysis. Furthermore, using the first-order correlation between sedimentation rate and wave energy from the Wave Weather Prediction Dataset 2022, which is the result of wave estimation associated with future climate change, we found that the amount of sedimentation at navigation and anchorage areas in ports on the Pacific side of Hokkaido would decrease with future changes in external forces of waves.

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© 2023 Japan Society of Civil Engineers
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