LOSS OF LIFE ESTIMATION IN FUTURE FLOOD CONSIDERING CLIMATE CHANGE, DEPOPULATION AND AGING POPULATION

Abstract

 In addition to global warming progressing on a global scale, serious population decline and aging are progressing in Japan. While the scale of floods is expected to increase due to future climate change, the elderly are vulnerable to disasters, so an increase in the proportion of the elderly is thought to lead to an increase of victims of flood damage. We investigated how the scale of potential human damage would change compared to the present when all of the effects of increasing human damage due to climate change and aging and the effects of reducing human damage due to population decline were taken into account. The research was conducted on the Omono River basin in Akita Prefecture using the RRI model for inundation analysis and the LIFE-Sim model for human damage estimation. As a result, even though the population will decrease significantly in the future projections, it is assumed that the scale of human damage will be greater than the present due to the expansion of the scale of floods and the aging of the population.