2024 Volume 80 Issue 17 Article ID: 24-17066
It is necessary to plan coastal protection facilities based on climate change, however, climate change is accompanied by a great deal of uncertainty. In this study, real options analysis, one of the decision-making methods used when there is uncertainty about the future, is applied to coastal protection facility planning. The optimal height of coastal dikes and the timing of maintenance were determined using real options analysis. The results of the analysis showed that a height of 2.5 m increase is optimal when the progression of climate change is small, no additional measures are required in the future. It was shown that the timing and magnitude of climate change adaptation required varies depending on the progression of the scenario tree. Real options analysis shows that the economically optimal timing and level of maintenance can be determined dynamically.
