2024 Volume 80 Issue 2 Article ID: 23-00041
The concept of “equalization of healthcare services” refers to the elimination of regional disparities in healthcare services so that everyone can enjoy the right to receive high-level healthcare equally throughout the country. In order to study the policy of “equalization of healthcare services” in detail, it is essential to forecast the future demand and supply of healthcare services at district level. Hence the present study attempts to develop a simple demand forecasting model regarding the number of patients by district based on the gravity model. As a result of constructing the model in Hyogo Prefecture and visualizing the future changes in the demand for healthcare, it is shown that although there is an increase in demand due to the aging of the population in urban areas, there is a marked decrease in demand in many areas.
