2024 Volume 80 Issue 2 Article ID: 23-00090
Railway operators enforce train operation control such as suspended operations and speed reduction during heavy rainfall based on precipitation observed by rain gauges to ensure safe train operation from slope failure and other failure caused by rainfall. In this study, we evaluated the impact of increased heavy rainfall due to climate change on train operation control against heavy rainfall from 1976 to 2020. In the East Japan Railway Company area, the frequency and time of train operation control shows a significant increase at the 5% significance level. The frequency increased by about 15% per decade and the time also increased by about 20%. Comparing the 30-year period from 1976 to 2005 (early period) and the 15-year period from 2006 to 2020 (late period), the difference between the early period and late period in the frequency and time of train operation control is significant at the 5% significance level. The frequency is about 1.4 times higher in the late period than in the early period, and the time is also about 1.7 times higher. Investigating at these trends by region, Tohoku region is more pronounced than Kanto, Koshin and Hokuriku regions.
