Abstract
In analyzing business continuity and economic damage, initial production capacity rate is an important indicator that provides a starting point for recovery. Furthermore, initial production capacity rate is also an indicator of seismic safety in the sense that it is related to the percentage of facilities and equipment that escaped damage. In this paper, the method for evaluating production capacity immediately after an earthquake that reflects the actual damage caused by recent earthquakes and the characteristics of each industry sector was examined. Specifically, functional fragility curves of production capacity for each of 11 industries were developed using a multinomial response model based on damage survey data from the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake and the 2022 Fukushima offshore earthquake. As a result of subdividing the industry categories, industries with high and low seismic safety were identified. Compared with the functional fragility curves in the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries showed significant improvement in seismic safety. The functional fragility curves by industry estimated in this study reflect the seismic safety of each industry, and are expected to be an effective tool to support more sophisticated and refined estimates of economic damage caused by earthquakes.
