Abstract
Initial fields of 50 potential typhoons under the present climate were provided by using a tropical cyclone potential vorticity bogussing scheme. Then, distributions of the possible maximum storm surges and high waves over the whole area of Ise Bay under the 50 initial fields were predicted by using an atmosphere-ocean-wave coupled model which enables us to perform highly accurate calculations of the storm surges in Ise Bay.
The results show that the potential storm tide over the inner area of Ise Bay exceeds 3.5 m which is the largest storm tide ever recorded in Japan. In particular, the maximum storm tide in Nagoya Port reached 5.6 m which exceeds a storm tide of 4.5 m pointed out by previous studies. Hence, there is a possibility of an occurrence of the storm surge of which height remarkably exceeds 3.5 m in Ise Bay under the present climate.
