ACCURACY VERIFICATION OF COASTAL WAVE NUMERICAL FORECAST MODEL, GPV (CWM), FOR MARINE CONSTRUCTION

Abstract

 Meteorological and sea conditions have been conventionally taken as forecast factor for judging the possibility of marine construction works. However, in the actual construction, the judgement of construction work has been dependent on the appointed morning-sea conditions such as eye-observed wave height, period, wave direction, and wind direction and speed. Furthermore, forecast data's accuracy has not been investigated systematically. Therefore, the present study validates the accuracy of the data forecasted by the coastal wave numerical forecast model (GPV). The hitting ratio, correlation coefficient and root mean square error are evaluated using the observation. It is concluded that the forecast accuracy of the hitting ratio for the significant wave height and period is in the range of 80 ~ 90 % under the thresholds of 1 m and 10 s, respectively, and the forecast data of GPV can be used to judge whether a marine construction is enabled or not.